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Elections 2026
★ Latest
Oregon Republican Governor Primary — Statewide Poll
Scientific live-telephone survey of 656 verified likely Oregon Republican primary voters, May 7–13, 2026. Five days before Election Day.
656
Completed Interviews
±3.83%
Margin of Error
34/36
Counties
📌 Drazan 40.5% / Diehl 37.6% — statistical dead heat within MoE
📌 Among already-cast ballots: Drazan leads by less than one point
📌 Dudley at 17.2% — identical across every sub-sample cut
📌 Live phone interviews · Secretary of State voter file sample
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Elections 2026
Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Debate — Reaction Poll
Live debate-night poll capturing immediate voter reaction from 110 debate-watchers, April 16, 2026.
110
Responses
93.6%
Republican
10.5 min
Avg completion
📌 Diehl won the debate (47.3%) — Bethell won the night (+13 net gain)
📌 Spiral of silence: Bethell's hidden momentum showed a −12 gap
📌 Diehl leads electability (3.98/5) but lost 10 net supporters post-debate
📌 97.1% of Republicans say they'll back the nominee
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Elections 2026
Oregon GOP Governor Race: Who Wins, Who Splits, Who Switches?
Full-field Republican primary survey testing candidate preferences, electability, and the Dudley Senate hypothesis.
1,022
Responses
921
Republicans
5 days
In the field
📌 Diehl at 66.4% in full field — convergence across 7 independent measures
📌 76.4% of Republicans said a Dudley Senate run would be a good or great idea
📌 Medina showed limited crossover appeal; Drazan strongest general election candidate
📌 Methodology challenged by Team Medina — full response published
Predict Oregon polls use varying methodologies documented on each results page. The May 2026 primary poll is a scientific probability-based sample with a ±3.83% margin of error. Earlier polls used self-selected non-probability samples and are clearly labeled as such. Predict Oregon is independently funded and is not affiliated with any candidate, party, or organization. Read our full methodology →