110 debate-watchers responded live during and immediately after the April 16, 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial debate — measuring who they believed won, how their candidate preferences shifted, and which candidates showed strength going into the final four weeks of the primary. Here's what the data shows.
Respondents were asked to identify the debate winner from their own perspective (personal win) and who they thought most other viewers would say won (perceived winner — the "spiral of silence" question).
Bethell's −12 gap is the largest in the field and the most analytically significant finding of the night. 34 people personally said she won the debate — but only 22 believe others would agree. Her supporters are systematically underestimating how much company they have. Classic spiral of silence dynamics: hidden momentum that the headline numbers don't fully reflect.
Diehl by contrast shows a gap of just +1 — his supporters feel like the majority because, in this sample, they are.
Respondents reported their candidate preference immediately before the debate started (Q3) and again after it concluded (Q4). This measures the debate's actual persuasive impact at the individual level.
| Candidate | Before (Q3) | After (Q4) | Net Shift | Supporters Who Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diehl | 68 (61.8%) | 58 (52.7%) | −10 | 23.5% |
| Bethell | 12 (10.9%) | 25 (22.7%) | +13 | 8.3% |
| Dudley | 7 (6.4%) | 10 (9.1%) | +3 | 14.3% |
| Drazan | 6 (5.5%) | 3 (2.7%) | −3 | 66.7% |
| Undecided | 17 (15.5%) | 14 (12.7%) | −3 | — |
Bethell gained from every direction — directly from Diehl's camp, from Drazan's collapsing base, and from the undecided pool. She retained 11 of 12 pre-debate supporters (91.7%). The strongest individual performance of the night.
Diehl remains the frontrunner but this was not a consolidating performance. Eight of his 16 departures moved to undecided rather than to a rival — they are recoverable. The gap didn't widen; it shrank.
Drazan's base effectively collapsed: two-thirds of her pre-debate supporters moved elsewhere, most directly to Bethell.
Q5 asked respondents to rate each candidate's likelihood of defeating Tina Kotek (1 = Kotek wins · 5 = Republican wins). Q6 measured each candidate's potential to persuade non-Republicans to vote Republican (1 = highly unlikely · 5 = highly likely).
| Candidate | Electability vs. Kotek (Q5) | Crossover Persuasion (Q6) | Gap (Q6−Q5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diehl | 3.98 / 5 | 3.84 / 5 | −0.14 |
| Bethell | 2.99 / 5 | 3.25 / 5 | +0.26 |
| Dudley | 2.74 / 5 | 2.91 / 5 | +0.17 |
| Drazan | 2.59 / 5 | 2.58 / 5 | −0.01 |
Bethell is the only candidate rated higher on persuasion than on electability — a +0.26 gap suggesting respondents believe she can bring in voters beyond the Republican base even if they're less certain about a general election outcome. Diehl leads both metrics by a wide margin, but his persuasion score trails his electability score, suggesting he's viewed primarily as a Republican consolidator rather than a crossover candidate.
Republican respondents were asked how likely they are to support the Republican nominee even if it isn't their preferred candidate.
Full Analysis — Complete Survey Results
9 pages · Debate night methodology · All nine questions · Complete data tables · Candidate profiles
The complete analysis covers all nine poll questions, the full before/after preference movement breakdown (including where Diehl's 16 departures went), spiral of silence methodology explanation, electability and persuasion scoring, party unity data, and individual candidate profiles with context for each campaign. Download the PDF for the full picture.